HP 12C#ABA hp 12c_solutions handbook_English_E.pdf - Page 77
Seasonal Variation Factors Based on Centered Moving Averages
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00 131760 300500 271120 171,393.33 144,790.00 207,440.00 234,460.00 3-month average for March. 3-month average for April. 3-month average for May. 3-month average for June. Seasonal Variation Factors Based on Centered Moving Averages. Seasonal variation factors are useful concepts in many types of forecasting. There are several methods of developing seasonal moving averages, on the of more common ways being to calculate them as a ration of the periodic value to a centered moving average for the same period. For instance, to determine the sales for the 3rd quarter of a given year a centered moving average for that quarter would be calculated from sales figures from the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of the year and the 1st quarter of the following year. The seasonal variation factor for that 3rd quarter would then be the ration of the actual sales in the 3rd quarter to the centered moving average for that quarter. While quarterly seasonal variations are commonly used, the HP 12C can also be programmed to calculate monthly seasonal variations using a centered 12 month moving averages. Programs for both of these calculations are represented here: An HP 12C program to calculate the quarterly seasonal variations based on a centered 4-point moving average is: KEYSTROKES DISPLAY CLEAR 1 2 2 1 3 00- 01- 45 1 02- 2 03- 10 04- 45 2 05- 44 1 06- 40 07- 45 3 76