HP 12C#ABA hp 12c_solutions handbook_English_E.pdf - Page 92

Select the best smoothing constant based on sales in, thousands of dollars of 22 - error 5

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1. Key in the number 1 and press . 2. Key in the selected and press 0 1. 3. From the selection routing or from a previous forecast: o Key in the smoothed average St-1 and press 2. o Key in the trend Tt-1 and press 3. o Key in the forecast t+1 and press 6. 4. Key in the current data value and press forecasting the value just entered. . The output is the error in 5. Press period. . The displayed value represents the forecast for the next 6. Record the following values: 0 (α), 2 (St-1), 3 (Tt-1) and 6 (Dt+1) for use as initial values in the next forecast. You may also wish to record 5 (Dt). 7. Repeat steps 4, 5, and 6 for the next forecast if available. Example: Select the best smoothing constant based on sales (in thousands of dollars) of 22, 23, 23, 25, 23, 27, 25. Given the current sales in month 8 of 26, forecast the following month. Select the smoothing constant (α): Keystrokes Display CLEAR 0.00 1 1.00 .5 0 0.50 1 0.50 22 2 22.00 23 6 0.00 23.00 23 23.25 25 25.25 23 23.69 27 27.13 25 25.95 91

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91
1.
Key in the number 1 and press
.
2.
Key in the selected and press
0
1.
3.
From the selection routing or from a previous forecast:
o
Key in the smoothed average
S
t-1
and press
2.
o
Key in the trend
T
t-1
and press
3.
o
Key in the forecast
t+1
and press
6
.
4.
Key in the current data value and press
. The output is the error in
forecasting the value just entered.
5.
Press
. The displayed value represents the forecast for the next
period.
6.
Record the following values:
0 (
α
),
2 (
S
t-1
),
3 (
T
t-1
)
and
6 (
D
t+1
) for use as initial values in the next forecast. You may
also wish to record
5 (
D
t
).
7.
Repeat steps 4, 5, and 6 for the next forecast if available.
Example:
Select the best smoothing constant based on sales (in
thousands of dollars) of 22, 23, 23, 25, 23, 27, 25. Given the current sales
in month 8 of 26, forecast the following month. Select the smoothing
constant (
α
):
Keystrokes
Display
CLEAR
0.00
1
1.00
.5
0
0.50
1
0.50
22
2
22.00
23
6
0.00
23.00
23
23.25
25
25.25
23
23.69
27
27.13
25
25.95